Prices of agricultural commodities have come under intensified downward pressure this year. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices have fallen by 8.6%, 8.3%, and 4.9% respectively so far this year. Multiple factors are behind the…
Comments on yesterday’s CPI report and yield moves.
Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.
The US CPI report for January showed inflation did not cool as much as anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.23% to 0.31% on a month-over-month basis, higher than anticipations of 0.2% m/m. It fell from 3.4% to 3.1%…
We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of…
The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts…
The Swiss franc is among the worst performing major currencies so far this year. This marks a reversal following its stellar performance last year. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) support for the domestic currency…
The Chinese economy continues to face deflationary pressures, reducing the odds that any intervention-driven rebound in equities will be sustained. In addition, our Geopolitical strategists have argued that US-China relations…
China’s credit data update for January delivered a mixed signal on Friday. The CNY 6.50 trillion increase in aggregate financing beat expectations of CNY 5.60 trillion and marked a significant acceleration from CNY 1.94…