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Policy

In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.  

Turkey’s tight policy stance will weigh on growth and earnings, reinforcing our bearish view on Turkish equities. The central bank held rates at 46% and maintained a hawkish bias, consistent with efforts to bring inflation down from 35% to single digits.…
European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank cut by 25 bps to 0%, in…

In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank. 

Sweden’s economic fragility and disinflation support further easing, reinforcing our long SEK rates and NOK/SEK trades. The Riksbank cut rates by 25 bps to 2.0% and projected an additional cut, consistent with prior OIS pricing. Forecasts for both headline…
UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting expectations at 3.5%, down from…

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will remove export restrictions…

While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.

Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget deficit contained but they are inflationary.