Policy

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against entirely arbitrary executive tariffs, especially when wielded against US allies and partners.

This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets. 

Rising bond yields may present an even greater danger to the global economy than the trade war. With equity valuations no longer discounting much economic risk, investors should position themselves defensively.

We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months.