Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Policy

f_image_20240220_193702.PNG
Global Risks Rebounding (GeoRisk Update)

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
US LEI Continues To Contract
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.4% m/m in January, following a 0.1% m/m drop in December – disappointing expectations of a milder decline. This marks the 23rd consecutive monthly decrease and has pushed down the index to its…
Daily Insights
China's 5-Year LPR Cut Is Not A Game Changer
Chinese policymakers surprised on Tuesday with greater-than-anticipated easing for the troubled property market. Although the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) – the benchmark for most household and corporate loans – was kept unchanged at 3.45%, the 5-year LPR –…
Daily Insights
On The Lookout For An Opportunity To Increase Duration Exposure
US Treasuries have been selling off over the past two months as investors downgrade the odds of an imminent start to the Fed’s easing cycle. Naturally, a question facing investors is whether current levels constitute a good opportunity to increase duration…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240219_175531.PNG
Has Biden's Approval Bottomed?

Democrats remain favored for reelection in 2024, which implies gridlock and policy status quo in 2025. That is not negative for stocks in the near term. However, economic, political, and geopolitical risks will escalate from here, causing volatility.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Base Effects Boost Swedish Headline Inflation
The stronger-than-anticipated acceleration in Sweden’s headline CPI inflation is unlikely to derail the Riksbank’s plan to pivot to policy easing this year. In particular, base effects from lower energy prices a year ago are behind the 1-point increase in…
Daily Insights
Sentiment Is Bullish Despite Concerns About Inflation
The S&P 500 forged a new all-time high last Thursday and ended the week with a 4.9% year-to-date gain, extending the rally that started in late-October. Interestingly, the recent increase comes even though investors have priced out a Fed rate cut in March…
Daily Insights
Will Core Goods Prices Continue Declining?
Much of the focus of investors concerned about lingering price pressures has been on services prices. There is good reason for that. Even though core CPI inflation remains relatively elevated at 3.9% y/y in January, core goods prices fell by 0.3% y/y and are…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240216_152413.PNG
The 1999 Risk

Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
f_image_20240216_192656.PNG
Elevated Cash Balances May Not Be A Big Deal

Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics