Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates…
China’s credit data update for January delivered a mixed signal on Friday. The CNY 6.50 trillion increase in aggregate financing beat expectations of CNY 5.60 trillion and marked a significant acceleration from CNY 1.94…
Chinese A-shares will probably begin forming a volatile bottom. The basis is that authorities will likely throw the kitchen sink at the onshore market in an attempt to stabilize share prices. The same is not true for offshore listed…
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.
Thursday’s Chinese CPI and PPI release for January indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. On the consumer side, prices registering the fastest pace of annual decline in 15 years.…
According to the latest MBA weekly survey, mortgage applications increased 3.7% in the week ending February 2. The contents of the report were mixed. A 12.3% jump in the refinance index drove the increase while mortgage…
After having surged in the second half of 2021 and early 2022, the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker peaked in mid-2022 and has since been on a general downtrend. The latest reading of 5.0% in January is a continuation of…
Chinese domestic stocks have fared quite poorly over the past year. Since late-January 2023, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index fell roughly 24% to last week’s low, driven by ongoing weakness in China’s economy and a…
The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in…