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Policy

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The Risk Of Overheating

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Indonesian Election 2024: New Order 2.0?

Indonesia will not revert to dictatorship. Yet the guardrails against authoritarianism are also constraining the actions of the next government in tackling near term domestic and regional challenges. For long-term positioning, use potential selloff from a “dictatorship scare” to build position as structural outlook for Indonesia is positive due to the China-West divorce and the global energy transition.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
US Banks' Lending Conditions Continue To Tighten
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) continues to show the impact of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Banks were still tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), home equity…
Daily Insights
Treasury Selloff Continues
Treasury yields continued to push higher on Monday, bringing the total increase over the past two trading days to 29bps. The move comes on the back of strong economic data releases indicating that conditions in the US are resilient. Notably, Friday’s…
Daily Insights
Sweden Riksbank Monitor Update
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service upgrades Swedish government bonds to neutral from underweight within European fixed-income portfolios. The Riksbank kept its policy rate steady at 4% last week. Governor Erik Thedéen and the Riksbank…
Daily Insights
A Blockbuster Jobs Report
The US Employment report came in well above consensus expectations on Friday, delivering a strong positive signal on labor market conditions in January. The 353 thousand increase in nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations of a slowdown to 185 thousand.…
Daily Insights
The S&P500 During Fed Rate Cuts
The S&P500 During Fed Rate Cuts …
Daily Insights
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Timing The Transition From Soft Landing To Recession

Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Saudi Arabia: Economic Slowdown To Persist

The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade Saudi Arabia from neutral to overweight.

Emerging Markets Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
Near-Identical Rate Cuts In The G7 Is A Mispricing
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central banks don’t behave recklessly –…
Daily Insights

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