The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors.
The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration…
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition…
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to…
Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD.
Chinese credit dynamics remain muted with the expansion in total social financing easing from 2.45 trillion yuan to 1.94 trillion yuan in December, below expectations of a tamer slowdown to 2.16 trillion yuan. Loan growth also…
In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.
US CPI inflation for December came in slightly hotter than anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Both the monthly and…
We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI report.