Highlights China-U.S. trade détente goes against our alarmist forecast, prompting us to reassess the view; We do not expect the truce to last long, as China has not given the U.S. what we believe the Trump administration wants…

Special Report

Highlights The grand U.S.-China strategic negotiation is focused on Korea and trade - only Korea is seeing good news; The trade war is expanding to include investment - and Chinese capital account liberalization is the silver bullet…

Highlights Feature Chart of the WeekAg Vol Will Rise  Over the coming three months markets will be zeroing in on spring planting in the U.S., looking for deviations from the USDA's March intentions report. This will occur…

Highlights Our constraints-based methodology does not rely on human intelligence or the "rumor mill" to analyze political risks; Yet insights from our travels across the U.S., including inside the Beltway, offer interesting…

Highlights The global economy is slowing. However, growth should stabilize at an above-trend pace over the next few months, as fiscal policy turns more stimulative and interest rates remain in accommodative territory. President Trump…

Highlights An additional heavy salvo of U.S. import tariffs, were they to occur, would cause a material deceleration in Chinese economic growth (ceteris paribus). Trade negotiations are likely to produce a relatively benign outcome,…

Special Report

Highlights Dear Client, This week, we are publishing a Special Report produced by Mark McClellan, author of The Bank Credit Analyst and Mathieu Savary, author of Foreign Exchange Strategy. This report discusses the long-term outlook for…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, we are publishing a Special Report co-produced with Mark McClellan, who writes The Bank Credit Analyst. This report discusses the long-term outlook for the dollar and argues that the greenback is in a structural…

Highlights Apart from rising geopolitical tensions, our main macro themes remain a growth slowdown in China and a rise in U.S. core inflation. This combination bodes ill for EM financial markets. Continue underweighting EM stocks,…

Highlights The ECB admits that its policy is considerably more accommodative than it would be absent the need to integrate the weaker euro area economies. But a strategy designed to integrate some is alienating others, both within…