Highlights Declining uncertainty over policy, stabilizing growth in China and improvements in international liquidity, all will allow global economic activity to pick up in the months ahead. A weak dollar will reinforce this positive…
Highlights The slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector is at risk of becoming deeper than elsewhere. This is not bearish for the U.S. dollar, given that it is a countercyclical currency, but it is not a constructive development,…
Highlights Economic data suggest the current business cycle in China has not yet reached a bottom. Stimulus measures have not been forceful enough to fully offset a slowing domestic economy and weakening global demand. With possibly…
Highlights A unified push among central banks to drop their currencies inevitably leads to lower interest rates, which eventually sows the seeds of a recovery. However, with prospects of a full-blown trade war in front view,…
Highlights So What? Tariffs and currency depreciation will likely lead to military saber-rattling in Asia Pacific. Why? President Trump is not immune to the market’s reaction to his trade war escalation. Yet China’s…
Analysis on India is available below. Highlights Moderate RMB depreciation is consistent with the economic as well as political objectives of Chinese authorities. Yet, this is bad news for EM currencies and risk assets. As EM…
Highlights When it comes to policy easing, the euro area 5-year yield at -0.15 percent is running out of road, while the U.S. 5-year yield is still at the dizzying heights of 1.8 percent. Hence, the ECB is likely to come out the loser…
Highlights So What? Markets remain complacent about U.S.-China trade. Why? The U.S. has escalated the trade war by threatening sanctions on key Chinese tech firms. Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing his domestic audience for…