This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…
We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular…
The October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey was mixed, showing weak headline data but steadier underlying components. The headline index fell to -12.8 from 23.2, the lowest level since April 2025. Underlying details were not as…
The October Fed Beige Book points to slowing growth as uncertainty continues to weigh on activity. Fed contacts reported consumer spending recently decreased, though auto sales were supported by EV purchases ahead of the expiration…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
The September ADP report contracted by 32k jobs, missing expectations and extending the trend of weakening employment. August was revised lower to a 3k contraction, marking two consecutive months of decline after also contracting in…
US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession…
BCA clients are divided on whether the US economy is heading into a recession, but lean towards the view that it will be avoided. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, 43% of respondents answered…
August PPI inflation cooled, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and long duration with steepeners. Headline PPI fell 0.1% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% after July’s 0.7% gain. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade)…