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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

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Tracking The Trump Trade

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Raising Our US Recession Probability Following Trump’s Victory
Our Global Investment Strategy colleagues believe trade tensions will offset the pro-business parts of the Trump administration’s agenda. They raised their 12-month recession probability to 75%. The recent rise in bond yields, partly fueled by Trump’s win,…
Daily Insights
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Another Look At The Labor Market

The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a more opportune entry point to bet against risk assets once the election fever runs its course.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Raising Our US Recession Probability Following Trump’s Victory

The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
BoE: A Hawkish Cut Signals The MPC Is In Charge
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE…
Daily Insights
Fed: Marginally Less Dovish
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected yet introduced uncertainty on the timing of its next move. The statement was relatively unchanged, except for the removal of a segment from September highlighting they had gained greater confidence…
Daily Insights
US Employment: Noisy Jobs Report Extends Cooling Trend
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis. Nonfarm payrolls were flat with…
Daily Insights
China PMIs: A Rebound From Low Levels
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures.…
Daily Insights
ISM Manufacturing: A Whiff Of Stagflation?
The October ISM Manufacturing missed expectations, decreasing to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. The Prices Paid component jumped, rising to 54.8 from 48.3 the month prior. New Orders showed a small upside surprise at 47.1, up 1 point on the month, pushing the…
Daily Insights
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The Critical Question For Bond Investors

A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity