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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

The Nuances Of Fedspeak
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was misread, and points to cautious dovishness. Some commentators called it hawkish, others suggested the Fed abandoned its 2% target. Neither is accurate. Central bank communication is rarely binary; it operates across…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Philly Fed Weakness Reinforces Growth And Labor Risks
The Philly Fed’s August dip confirms persistent US manufacturing weakness and sends a disinflationary impulse. The index fell to -0.3 from 15.9 in July, with shipments, employment, and new orders all declining, the latter slipping into contraction.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
FOMC Minutes Showed Broad Consensus To Hold Despite High-Profile Dissents
FOMC minutes showed broad support to hold in July, but the committee remains divided between proactive doves and reactive hawks. “Almost all members” favored leaving the funds rate unchanged, though two dissented for an immediate 25 bps cut. Doves want…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
How Has Global Growth Fared In The Face Of Tariffs?
In response to trade uncertainty, global growth is cooling but not collapsing, supporting a cautious near-term view on risk assets. Trade disruption earlier this year raised fears of a global recession, but the data so far point to deceleration, not…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Peter Berezin’s Thoughts of the Day: Curveball

We maintain our 12-month US recession probability at 60%. However, until the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are more clearly visible, we would refrain from moving to a fully defensive stance.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin’s Thoughts Of The Day: Moar Dealz

We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may come.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Life At The Kink

The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
MacroQuant: Flirting With A Critical Threshold
MacroQuant’s equity model points to mild downside risks for the S&P 500, supporting a modest equity underweight. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chanhyuck Lee, from our Global Investment Strategy team. MacroQuant’s Stock Coach model, which…
Daily Insights by Chanhyuck Lee
Too Early To Sound The All Clear

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Still Moving Sideways

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity