The July Employment Situation report had already cemented the case for a September rate cut and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments dispelled any remaining doubt about an imminent monetary easing cycle. All the labor…
This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.
The ISM services PMI remained mostly stable in August, extending a second consecutive month of modest expansion. The headline index ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.5. However, although new orders continued to expand, new export…
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the…
US job openings declined from a downwardly revised 7.91 million to 7.67 million in July, the lowest level since 2021 and well short of expectations of 8.1 million. The downward revision indicates that labor demand actually…
In a widely expected move, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point for a third consecutive month in September, lowering the benchmark overnight rate to 4.25%. Policymakers also signaled…
Both leading PMI measures painted a sluggish picture of China’s economic conditions in August. The NBS composite PMI suggested that overall activity barely expanded (50.1) and that the manufacturing sector’s…
The Q2 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Nearly 80% (60%) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q2, according to Factset…