Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both…
Weak April housing data and deteriorating builder sentiment reinforce our defensive stance, as recession risks remain underpriced. Housing starts rose at a 1.6% m/m annualized rate, missing expectations. Similarly, building permits,…
Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.
This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels…
A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US…
Soft April jobs confirm the Canadian labor market stall, yet we remain neutral on CGBs and structurally bullish on the CAD. The unemployment rate rose more than expected to 6.9% from 6.7%. Employment growth exceeded expectations but…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2025.
This year’s corporate bond sell off has hit high-yield more than investment grade, and high-yield spreads have turned relatively more attractive as a result.