Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) disappointed in May, contracting 0.5% m/m from a 0.6% decline in April. However, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.4% m/m in May. Year-on-year contractions in the LEI have reliably predicted…
In its latest Special Report, BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service considers the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current…
We consider the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current coupon Agency MBS.
The heart of the US manufacturing sector is still pulsing. Industrial production surpassed expectations in May, growing by 0.9% m/m after having stagnated in April. Notably, the pro-cyclical manufacturing production index rebounded from April’s surprise…
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June, moderating the degree of restriction rather than pivoting outright to easy monetary policy settings. Indeed, the rate cut was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation and growth forecasts. Since then,…
Nvidia is now the largest company in the world. Its market capitalization has not only surpassed Microsoft’s, it also tops the entire stock market capitalizations of the UK and France. While Nvidia founders and owners are likely to welcome this news, it acts…
US retail sales were mostly unchanged, growing by a mere 0.1% m/m in May, short of the expected 0.3% monthly increase. A 2.2% m/m decline in gasoline stations’ sales weighed on the overall result, though retail sales excluding autos and gas disappointed by an…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, in line with market expectations. Australia’s monthly measure of headline inflation came in at 3.6% in April, still considerably above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3%…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions and they surprised to the upside in May. Notably, electronics exports, which are particularly sensitive to…
The equity risk premium (ERP) allows investors to assess the additional compensation they are offered as an enticement to assume equities’ incremental risk. The ERP measures equities’ excess return by deducting the inflation-linked 10-year yield from the…