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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Higher Perceived Inflation Weighs On Consumer Morale
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment slid from 79.4 to 77.9 in April from 79.4, below expectations. Although both current conditions and expectations disappointed, the deterioration in expectations came against the…
Daily Insights
A Tactical Buying Opportunity For EUR/USD
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a tactical buying opportunity for EUR/USD is approaching. However, this will not lead to a renewed bull market, only to a bounce toward 1.10-1.12.  Sentiment toward the euro is becoming…
Daily Insights
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A Whiff Of A Late Cycle?

In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Chinese Export Growth Disappoints In March
Chinese trade and credit data delivered a negative surprise for March. On the trade front, the 7.5% y/y drop in exports came in below expectations of a 1.9% y/y decline following four consecutive months of growth. While the jump in the New Export Orders…
Daily Insights
US Initial Claims Fall Below Expectations
US Initial jobless claims declined from 222 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending April 5, below expectations of a less pronounced decrease to 215 thousand. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number increased to 214 thousand. This initial claims…
Daily Insights
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The Mel Rule Says A US Recession Is Already Baked In The Cake

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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The ECB Signals A June Rate Cut

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
NFIB Confidence Deteriorates, Wages Expected Higher
The NFIB’s small business optimism index decreased by 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, missing expectations of 89.9, and reaching its lowest level since 2012. A few things stood out from the report: Labor market dynamics continue to slow. The net percent…
Daily Insights
The Message From US Inflation Expectations
The recent rise in market-based inflation expectations has caught the attention of market participants. Some investors have begun to worry that the Federal Reserve might be losing control of its inflation mandate by cutting rates sooner than it should. But…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity