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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

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MacroQuant Model Update: MacroQuant’s Equity Score Dips Below Average For The First Time In 12 Months

MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a neg­ative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
A State-Level Look At US Delinquency Rates And Employment Conditions
At 3.9% in February, the unemployment rate remains quite low in the US, corroborating the signal from GDP that current economic conditions are fine. Similarly, the Sahm Rule – which currently stands at 0.3 pp – has somewhat stabilized in recent months and has…
Daily Insights
Stronger-Than-Expected US Economic Momentum in Q4
The US economy expanded at a faster pace than previously believed in 2023Q4. GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% q/q rate, thus annulling the second estimate’s downward revision. Notably, consumption growth was revised even higher to 3.3% q/q, from 3.0% q/q and…
Daily Insights
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Questions From Europe, Canada, California

Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election season will deal negative surprises.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Ranking US Corporate Bond Sectors Part 2

We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Will US Small Caps Finally Have Their Moment?
In an Insight we published yesterday, we highlighted that the S&P 500 rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices stabilizing over the past month. This has also coincided with a…
Daily Insights
Riksbank Will Be Among The First To Cut Rates
The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side. The press release noted that…
Daily Insights
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The Big Story: The US Economy Is ‘Inverted’

For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
On A Knife-Edge
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the wave of inflation that the US experienced over the past three years cannot be safely repeated. The unemployment rate is a highly mean-reverting series: When it gets down to very low…
Daily Insights
US Consumers Are Pessimistic About The Future
The Conference Board’s gauge of US consumer confidence came in at 104.7 in March – broadly unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February and below expectations of an improvement to 107. The Expectations Index deteriorated from 76.3 to 73.8, while…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity