Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Citigroup’s economic surprise index for the Euro Area has been on a steady ascent since mid-2023. Its continued increase after breaking into positive territory at the start of February indicates that the region’s economic data are generating positive…
Our takeaways from this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4 – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…
Indicators continue to point to resilient US housing market dynamics. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased for the fourth consecutive month to an 8-month high of 51 in March, beating expectations it would remain unchanged at 48. Increases across all three…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
US Investment grade and high yield spreads have tightened 39 and 133 bps since their October 2023 highs, resulting in the outperformance of both fixed income sectors relative to equivalent-duration Treasuries. Still robust economic growth in the US…
Our US Beige Book monitor – which we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s report – continues to signal lackluster US economic conditions. Historically, the monitor has closely tracked real GDP growth in the US. However, the long standing…
Gold has had a stunning rally over the past few weeks, gaining 9.2% since February 14 and reaching consecutive all-time highs last week before paring back some of its gains. Indeed, the drivers of gold have moved in a bullish direction for the yellow metal.…
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service ranks the major economies by their economic and financial performance under various categories. In the inflation category, the surprising top award goes to Italy, a country which historically has tended to have…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -5.5 in February. The Current…