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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Asian Trade Data Warn Against A Meaningful Manufacturing Rebound
Some key Asian trade indicators are warning against betting on a sustained rebound in global trade activity. In particular, Taiwanese export orders collapsed by 16% y/y in December – significantly below expectations of a minor 1.0% y/y contraction. This…
Daily Insights
The Soft-Landing Debate: What US Banks See
The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) kicked off the fourth-quarter US reporting season on January 12th. As usual, our US Investment Strategists studied the SIFI’s earnings calls looking for macroeconomic insights from borrower performance, lender willingness,…
Daily Insights
ECB June Rate Cut: Steeper Yield Curve Ahead
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the rate cuts priced in the €STR curve.…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, January 2024

The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us that the consensus is getting closer to being set up for disappointment. We remain tactically equal weight equities and fixed income but think conditions may soon favor turning defensive.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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These Labor Market Indicators Are Pointing To A Hard Landing

Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024 recession call. After being bullish on risk assets last year, we are slowly turning more defensive.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Disinflation Boosts US Consumer Confidence – For Now
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The headline index jumped from 69.7 to a 30-month high of 78.8, beating expectations of a slight increase to 70.1. The current conditions and…
Daily Insights
A Fresh High
After having traded sideways for the past month, US equities ended the week on a high note with the S&P 500 closing at fresh record high on Friday. Last year’s winners are once again driving the rally. Information Technology, Communication Services, and…
Daily Insights
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The Fed’s Plan For Policy Easing

An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
What To Make Of The US Housing Market
Recent data suggest that the US housing market is resilient. In particular, a strong rebound in homebuilder sentiment is sending a positive signal. The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped from 37 to 44 in January – handily beating expectations of 39 on the back…
Daily Insights
A Lukewarm Signal From The Beige Book
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change in activity, three districts…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics