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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Rising Chinese Industrial Profits: Signal Or Noise?
China's industrial profits delivered a positive signal over the past couple months. Total profits expanded on a year-on-year basis in both August (+17.2% y/y) and September (+11.9% y/y). Rebounding industrial profits is typically a favorable development for…
Daily Insights
Structural Bear Market For European Bonds
The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half of the year, which will force the ECB…
Daily Insights
US Consumption Strengthens, Core PCE Inflation Accelerates In September
The US PCE report confirmed the signal from Thursday's preliminary GDP release that consumer spending was resilient in Q3.  Although personal income growth unexpectedly slowed, both nominal and real spending growth accelerated and beat expectations in…
Daily Insights
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Inflation: A Story Of Eras

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

The Bank Credit Analyst
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Inflation: A Story Of Eras

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

BCA Special Reports
A Hawkish Pause From The Bank Of Canada
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 5% for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. The Bank cited clear evidence of the impact of elevated interest rates on demand — especially in durable and semi-durable…
Daily Insights
China's Property Market Adjustment Is Not Over
According to BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service, the property market has not cleared. Property market indicators suggest that China's real estate sector is still struggling to stabilize. Home sales and starts have entered their third year of…
Daily Insights
The US Remains Economically More Resilient Than Its Peers
The flash PMI estimates from S&P Global delivered a mixed message about economic conditions across DM economies in October. The Eurozone composite index unexpectedly fell from 47.2 to a nearly three-year low of 46.5 on the back of surprise declines in…
Daily Insights
Global Equities In 2023
So far, 2023 is proving to be a year of two phases for global equity markets. Despite the bout of bank turmoil which weighed on equities in Q1, stocks rallied for the most part of the first seven months of the year. This rally has since morphed into a general…
Daily Insights
US Bonds: Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Value
The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly moved above 5% earlier this week before dipping back down. While we can’t rule out another jump back above 5% in the coming weeks, the recent bond selloff has created a good deal of long-run value in US Treasuries. In…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity