Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Tuesday’s release of Canadian CPI in August raised concerns that inflationary pressures are picking up again. Headline CPI inflation rose from 3.3% y/y to 4.0% y/y – above expectations of 3.8% y/y and marking the second consecutive increase after it fell to…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that recent BEA data are understating corporate net interest expense by a significant amount. Given the recent climb in interest rates, it would be reasonable to expect that corporate interest expense would…
After a steady rebound in the first half of the year, the US NAHB Housing Market Index’s 5-point decline to 45 in September was a disappointment to consensus estimates of a 1-point decrease. It marks the second consecutive deterioration and brought down the…
Google searches for “inflation” by US users have been on a general downward trend over the past year. This is in line with developments in realized inflation as annual core CPI inflation peaked last September. Similarly, market- and survey-based measures of…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sent a pessimistic signal about the global manufacturing cycle on Monday. The 20.1% y/y contraction in August is broadly in line with July’s 20.3% y/y drop and came in below consensus estimates of a 17.1% y/y…
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.
In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting
Recent Chinese economic data show some signs of stabilization. China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in August. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY3.12 trillion – above expectations of CNY2.69 trillion and exceeding the prior month’s CNY0.528…
The New York Fed’s latest consumer expectations survey shows household sentiment deteriorated in August. Job loss expectations jumped, with the average perceived likelihood of losing one’s job over the coming year increasing by 2.0 percentage points to a…
Our colleagues at BCA’s US Investment Strategy service have been excess savings bulls since cash began silting up on household balance sheets as transfer payments flowed from the Capitol to Main Street while High Street businesses were shuttered. Excess…