Our Global Investment Strategy team examined the risk of a fiscal crisis amid rising global debt levels. Stabilizing the US debt-to-GDP ratio would require a nearly 4% GDP improvement in the primary budget balance at…
October retail sales beat expectations, printing 0.4% m/m on top of positive revisions for September. However, the numbers were weaker when adjusting for autos or other volatile components, with the control group declining 0.1%…
Executive Summary The US Needs To Reduce Its Primary Budget Deficit By Nearly 4% Of GDP To Stabilize Debt Rising government debt in the US has heightened the risk of a fiscal crisis. If interest rates stay where they are, the US primary…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.
Our Global Investment Strategy colleagues believe trade tensions will offset the pro-business parts of the Trump administration’s agenda. They raised their 12-month recession probability to 75%. The recent rise in bond…
The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a…
The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75…
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish…
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected yet introduced uncertainty on the timing of its next move. The statement was relatively unchanged, except for the removal of a segment from September highlighting they…
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis.…