Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility.
The ADP Jobs Report delivered a better-than-anticipated signal about the US labor market on Wednesday. The 324 thousand increase in private employment in July beat expectations of a 190 thousand rise and marks the second highest reading in a year following…
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continue to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE), home equity lines of credit…
Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.
The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new orders, and new export orders.…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Last Friday, the Central Bank of Chile became the first major Latin American monetary authority to cut rates, thereby beginning the EM monetary easing cycle. In its latest meeting, board members decided to reduce the policy rate by a whopping 100 basis…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, regional equity allocation, and EUR/USD. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondents (59%) expect the next…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…