Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
The Fed’s latest Beige Book reveals that economic activity rose slightly in recent weeks. The results are based on surveys and interviews conducted across 12 districts through June 30. In particular, two of the districts experienced “slight and modest…
Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.
The June US CPI release showed inflationary pressures cooled last month. The headline index moderated from 4.0% y/y to 3.0% y/y – slightly below expectations of 3.1% y/y. Similarly, core CPI growth eased from 5.3% y/y to 4.8% y/y – a sharper slowdown than the…
As expected, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the second consecutive month after restarting its tightening campaign last month. At 5.0%, the policy rate now stands 4.75 percentage points above where it was at the start of the tightening cycle last…
Wheat, corn, and soybean all traded lower at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following the US Department of Agriculture’s latest release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – down 4.2%, 3.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. …
Hot UK wage data focused investors’ attention on the Bank of England’s battle against sticky inflationary pressures on Tuesday. The 7.3% y/y increase in weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to May surpassed expectations of a 7.1% y/y rise…
The NFIB survey provided a slightly positive signal about the US economy in June. Small business optimism improved from 89.4 to a 7-month high of 91.0 – beating expectations of a more muted increase to 89.9. Details of the report corroborate the signal…
The latest update of the Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index provides a positive signal for US goods inflation. It shows used car prices fell by -4.2% m/m (-10.1% y/y) in June – its third consecutive monthly decline following a brief pickup in…
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, US fiscal policy is marginally negative for the economy and marginally increases the odds of recession in 2023-24. It is not a positive catalyst for equities in the third quarter. Fiscal policy is…