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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

US Hiring Slows, Yet Wage Growth Remains Strong
On the surface, the lower-than-anticipated job gains suggest that US labor market conditions softened last month. Friday’s jobs report revealed that the increase in nonfarm payrolls slowed from a downwardly revised 306 thousand to 209 thousand in June – below…
Daily Insights
Inflation Nowcast Points To A Moderation In June
Last week’s labor market data signal that US employment conditions remain strong – solidifying the case for a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month (see The Numbers). Yet in order for the Fed to continue tightening beyond July,…
Daily Insights
Third Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Comments From The Road

In this short weekly report, we review some of the most common questions clients asked us in the last few weeks.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Resilient US Labor Market Prompts Equity And Bond Selloff
Global stocks fell and sovereign bond yields surged on Thursday following the release of stronger-than-anticipated US labor market data. Data released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas showed job cuts declined to 40,709 last month from 80,089 in May.…
Daily Insights
World Economy Already In Recession
According to our Counterpoint strategy service, latest nowcasts indicate that world growth has likely slowed to sub-2 percent, thereby passing the threshold of a typical world recession as experienced in the early 1970s, early 1980s, early 1990s and early…
Daily Insights
Declining Producer Prices Foreshadow Lower Eurozone CPI Inflation
Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and followed a downwardly revised 0.9% y/y increase…
Daily Insights
Not Much In The Minutes, Wait For Payrolls And CPI
The minutes from the June FOMC meeting didn’t reveal anything that wasn’t already known. They did explicitly say that “some” participants would have preferred a 25 basis point rate hike instead of a pause at the last meeting, but this was already evident from…
Daily Insights
Will The Equity Rally Be Sustained?
Seven of the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors are in the green on a year-to-date basis, led by those that benefitted from the AI frenzy: Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. In fact, the Industrials sector has recouped all…
Daily Insights
World Economy Already In Recession

The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while metals and industrial commodities may get some brief respite, high yield credit and stocks will underperform government bonds. New tactical recommendations are to overweight French luxury goods versus US tech, and to overweight USD/COP.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics