Highlights The Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish stance is not the only reason for markets to cheer. The US is booming, China is unlikely to overtighten monetary and fiscal policy, and Europe remains a source of positive political…
Highlights The report from last week’s National People’s Congress (NPC) indicates a gradual pullback in policy support this year. Fiscal thrust will be neutral in 2021, whereas the rate of credit expansion will be slightly…
Highlights The incidents of state-owned enterprise (SOE) bond defaults late last year reflected deteriorating corporate balance sheets and exposed local governments’ weakening fiscal positions. Both were preexisting conditions…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…
Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks…
Highlights US-China relations in 2020 consist of a gentleman’s agreement to keep the Phase One trade deal in place and aggressive maneuvering in every other policy area. Stimulus is unlikely to be curtailed in the US or China…
Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. Instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Jonathan LaBerge. Jonathan will explore the risks posed to commercial real estate and the banking…
Table 1 Online political betting markets are still not fully pricing our sister BCA Geopolitical Strategy’s 55% odds for the "Blue Wave" scenario. Therefore, it pays to examine what will be the likely impact of…