Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…

Special Report

Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong  The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…

Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong  The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…

Special Report

Executive Summary Dollar Still The Largest Global Reserve Currency  The rise of cryptocurrencies like stablecoins theoretically pose risks to fiat currencies and their general use. In the US, the Federal Reserve will look…

Special Report

Executive Summary Rebounding Chinese Auto Sales  China’s stimulus for auto purchases and an easing global auto chip shortage will lead to about a 10% recovery in domestic auto sales in 2022H2 from a year ago. Next…

Special Report

Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity  Over the next six-to-18 months, the Xi Jinping administration will “let 100 flowers bloom” – i.e., relax a range of government policies to secure China’…

Special Report

Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries ​​​​ Tectonic geopolitical trends are taking shape in Emerging Markets (EMs) today that will leave an indelible imprint on the…

Special Report

Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply  The US and Iran suspended their attempt to negotiate a nuclear deal on March 11. Countries often get cold feet before major agreements but there are good reasons to…

Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors  We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral relative to global stocks. At the same time, we are closing our tactical…

Special Report

Executive Summary Brazil: Are Political & Macro Risks Priced-In?  Presidential elections are due in Brazil on October 2, 2022. While the left-of-center former President Lula da Silva will likely win, the road to his…