Highlights Our three strategic themes over the long run: (1) great power rivalry (2) hypo-globalization (3) populism and nationalism. The implications are inflationary over the long run. Nations that gear up for potential conflict and…
Dear Client, We will be working on our 2022 Outlook for China, which will be published on December 8. Next week we will be sending you BCA Research’s Annual Outlook, featuring long-time BCA client Mr. X, who visits towards the end…
Highlights Geopolitical conflicts point to energy price spikes and could add to inflation surprises in the near term. However, US fiscal drag and China’s economic slowdown are both disinflationary risks to be aware of. …
Highlights Short-term inflation risk will escalate further if politics causes new supply disruptions. Long-term inflation risk is significant as well. There is a distinct risk of a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East that would…
Highlights The fourth quarter will be volatile as China still poses a risk of overtightening policy and undermining the global recovery. US political risks are also elevated. A debt default is likely to be averted in the end. Fiscal…
On Monday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill that would have extended federal funding to early December, provided emergency relief, and suspended the debt ceiling until December 2022. Democrats are now facing a tight deadline.…
Cryptocurrencies tumbled on Friday following the PBoC’s announcement that it will consider all crypto-related transactions – including services provided by off-shore exchanges – as illicit financial activity. This follows a…
The performance of global risk assets improved somewhat on Tuesday following Monday’s tumble on the back of concerns about the potential implications of an Evergrande default. Nevertheless, risks remain elevated. A key…
Highlights We cannot predict how China will manage Evergrande precisely but we have a high conviction that it will do whatever it takes to prevent contagion across the property sector. However, China’s stimulus tools are losing…