Executive Summary Oil-Price Risk Skewed Upward The $10-$15/bbl risk premium in Brent prices will dissipate over the next month. Russia's best outcome is to follow the off-ramp offered by the US. President Biden'…
BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…
BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…
HighlightsUpgrade odds of Russia invading Ukraine from 50% to 75%. The US and allies are transferring arms to Ukraine while seeking alternate energy supply for Europe.Of the 75% war risk, we give 10% odds to Russia conquering all of…
Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…
Highlights The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait – the OPEC 2.0 states capable of increasing production this year – will have to step up for coalition members unable to lift output, including Russia.…
Highlights Russian negotiators in Vienna say talks with the West over Ukraine have reached a “dead end.” If talks are verifiably discontinued, global investors should reduce risk in their portfolios. Social unrest in…
Highlights Unless the US and NATO abandon Ukraine, the odds of Russia capturing parts of Ukraine are non-trivial over the next three years. Escalating geopolitical tensions will compel Russian policymakers to continue with tight…
Highlights A partial reinvasion of Ukraine cannot be ruled out. The constraints on Russia are not prohibitive, especially amid global energy shortages. On this issue, it is better to be alarmist than complacent. We would put the risk…
Tensions are once again soaring along the Russia-Ukraine border. Moscow has deployed nearly 100,000 Russian troops as well as weaponry, raising alarm bells that they are planning an incursion. US policymakers are warning of an…