Rising consumer price inflation and inflation expectations have led the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates from 4.25% to 5% over the past two months. This is a level of hawkishness that stands out globally, as…
Highlights The Russian central bank is wary of embedded high inflation expectations quickly feeding into higher realized inflation. One or two more rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Yet, hawkish monetary and fiscal policies will prevent…
Highlights Biden’s first 100 days are characterized by a liberal spend-and-tax agenda unseen since the 1960s. It is not a “bait and switch,” however. Voters do not care about deficits and debt. At least not for now.…
The Bank of Russia raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.0% on Friday, 25 bps more than expected. The central bank also increased its 2021 inflation forecast to 4.7-5.2% and argued that inflationary risks…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is rising once again after a big drop-off in risk during the pandemic and snapback. The Biden administration faces three critical foreign policy tests: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran.…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights Continued upgrades to global economic growth – most recently by the IMF this week –will support higher natgas prices. In our estimation, gas for delivery at Henry Hub, LA, in the coming withdrawal season (…
Our long Russian equities / short EM tactical recommendation is up 6.28% since initiation on February 5. However, risks to this trade are now rising. On Monday, President Putin signed a law allowing him to run for two more six…
Highlights The Biden administration is combining Trumpian nationalism with a renewed push for US innovation in a major infrastructure bill that is highly likely to become law. Populism and Great Power struggle with China and Russia are…