Highlights The Biden Administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan rolled out yesterday will, at the margin, boost global demand for energy and base metals more than expected later this year and next. Global GDP growth…
Highlights Biden’s policy on China is hawkish so far, as expected, but temporary improvement is possible. We are cyclically bearish on the dollar but are taking a neutral tactical stance as the greenback’s bounce could go…
Highlights The Biden administration will not attempt a major diplomatic “reset” with Russia. The era of engagement is over. Russia faces rising domestic political risk and rising geopolitical risk at the same time. A war…
Highlights Market-based geopolitical analysis is about identifying upside as well as downside risk. So far this year upside risks include vaccine efficacy, coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus, China’s avoidance of over-…
A tactical opportunity has emerged whereby investors should buy Russian stocks at the expense of the remainder of the EM benchmark. To begin with, Russian equities are cheap compared to other EM. On a relative price-to-book,…
Highlights In the wake of COVID-19, the low-probability, high-impact “Black Swan” event is as relevant as ever. Investors should already expect US terrorist incidents, a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, and crises involving…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, a relapse in oil prices and forthcoming fiscal austerity in Russia will dampen the rebound in domestic demand while keeping a lid on inflation. Authorities…
Chart 1Russia: The Recovery Is Stalling A relapse in oil prices and forthcoming fiscal austerity in Russia will dampen the rebound in domestic demand while keeping a lid on inflation (Chart 1). On the whole, overly tight…