If Turkey is the loser, who is the winner? First, Trump, who benefits from fulfilling a campaign pledge to reduce U.S. involvement in foreign wars – a stance that will ultimately be rewarded (or at least not punished) by a…
Highlights There is a tentative decline in geopolitical risk: An orderly Brexit or no Brexit is the likely final outcome and the U.S.-China talks are coming together. The outstanding geopolitical risks still warrant caution on global…
Highlights President Trump’s support among Republicans and lack of smoking gun evidence will prevent his removal from office. Trade risk will increase if Trump’s approval benefits from impeachment proceedings and the U.S.…
Highlights So What? Economic stimulus will encourage key nations to pursue their self-interest – keeping geopolitical risk high. Why? The U.S. is still experiencing extraordinary strategic tensions with China and Iran…
A combination of ultra-conservative fiscal and monetary policies over the past four years will help Russian equities, local bonds as well as sovereign and corporate credit to continue outperforming their respective EM benchmarks…
Dear Client, Tomorrow we will publish a debate piece on China shedding more light on the ongoing discussions at BCA on this topic. This report will articulate the conceptual and analytical differences between my colleague, Peter Berezin…
Russian financial markets and the ruble have entered a low-beta paradigm. A combination of ultra-conservative fiscal and monetary policies over the past four years will help Russian equities, local bonds as well as sovereign and corporate…
Investor surveys show that the majority of investors’ top concerns are political or geopolitical in nature. Yet there is limited research devoted to quantifying these risks. The most prominent techniques involve tallying…
Highlights So what? Quantifying geopolitical risk just got easier. Why? In this report we introduce 10 proprietary, market-based indicators of country-level political and geopolitical risk. Featured countries include…
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team believes that Russia’s threat of a market-share war is a feint: A market-share war would damage the Russian economy more than the balance sheets of U.S. shale producers, particularly…