Highlights EM risk assets will continue to plunge as U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar have more upside. Asset allocators should maintain an underweight allocation to EM within global equity and credit portfolios. Upgrade Russian…
Highlights The inexorable shift of refining eastward would be accelerated if the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia fail to curb crude oil production as we expect. Prolonging the crude oil market-share war - particularly between…
Highlights By now, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia have figured out that if each cuts 500k b/d of production, the revenue enhancement for both will be well worth the foregone volumes. Even without additional cuts from other…
Highlights The resilience of EM industrial commodity demand, which is helping to lift inflation and inflation expectations in the U.S., will be tested over the next few months, as markets gear up for a possible oil-production deal…
The volte-face being attempted by OPEC and non-OPEC producers in an attempt to keep oil prices above a pure-competition market-clearing level arises from the dire financial circumstances key states in both camps find themselves. Now…
Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…
We put the odds of an oil-production freeze agreement between OPEC and Russian officials next week in Algiers at slightly better than a coin toss.
The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…