Forget about the production-cooperation pact agreed between Russia and KSA over the weekend at the G20 meeting in China. With or without it, rebalancing of the oil market will force global inventories to draw beginning in 2016Q4 and…

Special Report

The Russo-Chinese relationship got a diplomatic boost this week, but can China provide Russia with the capital it needs to boost productivity meaningfully?

Special Report

We do not expect Russia and OPEC members to reach a production-limiting agreement at the April 17 meeting in Doha, but that does not diminish our bullish expectations for a rebalancing of oil markets in H2 2016.

Special Report

The old cyclical market axiom that "nothing cures low prices like low prices" has never held truer than in today's oil market.

In recent travel, our clients remain focused on downside risks to today's range-bound markets. And for good reason. Uncertainty regarding Chinese reaction function is the biggest source of political risk in today's markets. We…

Beyond the ongoing short-term rebound, EM currencies have more downside, and will depreciate by more than is implied by their forward rates on a 6-9 month horizon. This makes us reluctant to recommend buying local currency bonds to…

Special Report

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its…

While the oil market looked right through the Russian-Saudi production-freeze announcement earlier this week, we believe these states may be attempting to put lipstick on the proverbial pig, to provide a plausible narrative to…

Global trade is plummeting as commodity prices remain depressed and emerging markets unravel. Even if oil were not plumbing new lows, we would remain bearish on EM economies, where poor governance and low efficiency suggest that more…