Highlights Expect Spain's strong growth to fade somewhat as its credit impulse appears to have peaked. The Catalan independence debate is an inconvenience but not a long term tail-risk. Expect Italy's growth to pick up as the…

Highlights Catalonia is a red herring - stay focused on U.S. tax cuts; Tax cuts are on track and will swell the budget deficit; The dollar is poised for a comeback; Believe the Phillips Curve, not the "Amazon effect";…

Highlights French labor reforms stack up well against German and Spanish predecessors; We remain bullish on French industrials versus German industrials; Populism is overrated in Germany - European integration may not accelerate, but…

Highlights The Fed still wants to hike in December and thrice next year, but euro area inflation could roll-over versus the U.S. This could cause some weakness in EUR/USD. Long USD/JPY remains a cleaner way to capitalize on the Fed…

Highlights A major investment theme for the coming years will be the resynchronization of developed economy monetary policies. Expect substantial further convergence between U.S. T-bond yields and both German bund yields and Swedish…

Highlights U.S. Treasury yields should continue to rise as investors price-out doomsday risk; Tensions surrounding North Korea will continue, but there are signs that negotiations have started and that China is playing ball on…

Special Report

Highlights Italy cannot rely on currency devaluation to make up for poor competitiveness, as it did before the euro; Italian voters are becoming more Euroskeptic - the elections due by May 2018 pose a serious risk, as do elections…

Highlights The U.K. and EU may get a technical divorce, but the underlying economic and financial relationship may not end up changing dramatically - which is good news for the pound in the long term. Our 6-12 month preference for…

Highlights Trump's failures have helped fuel the bull market; Yet inflation and Trump legislative wins will embolden the Fed; The U.K. will have yet another election by 2019; Dodd-Frank repeal is a no go ... but small banks may…

Highlights Merkel is not revolutionizing but reaffirming Germany's Europhile policy; An earlier date for the Italian election would bring market jitters forward from Q1 2018; Yet a new German-style electoral law would decrease…