Highlights Our immediate reaction to Theresa May's vision of Brexit boils down to three points: You can wish all you want... but what you wish isn't what you get. Do you understand the legal framework? Where does this leave…
Highlights 1.How Will The European Economy Cope With Higher Interest Rates? 2. How Will The European Stock Market Cope With Higher Interest Rates? 3. How Will The EU Respond To The Start Of Brexit? 4. Will The Bank of Japan's 0%…
Highlights ECB QE has pushed the euro area's Target2 banking imbalance to an all-time high. Thereby, QE has raised the cost of euro break-up. The ECB must dial down QE because the Target2 banking imbalance is directly related to…
Highlights The credibility of ECB QE is set to diminish, one way or another. Stay long euro/dollar. Expect a continued compression in the German Bund yield spread versus the U.S. T-bond. Until the U.K. Supreme Court provides further…
Highlights De-globalization is accelerating. Europe is holding together, with populism in check. China power consolidation reflects extreme risks. Brexit is more likely, not less, after court ruling. Feature Chart I-1America Has…
Highlights The perceived shape of Brexit is the single most important driver of the pound and most U.K. assets. The U.K. Courts are due to deliver landmark legal rulings, which have huge implications for the perceived shape of Brexit…
The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…