The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a…
One of the best things about working at the world’s largest – and oldest! – market research firm is that the “vault” contains research on almost any conceivable topic. As such, I pen this short missive to flag to the GeoMacro clients…
The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher,…
The European Commission voted to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The announcement follows previous tariffs imposed on Chinese EV imports back in June. This new round of economic…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, CAPEX does not appear to be especially broad-based even among the largest companies in the US. The enclosed chart presents a bottom-up estimate of CAPEX as…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent the multi-decade housing and construction boom, China will be unable to generate the monster credit impulses that it did through 2000-20. While the credit…
The prospects of Fed rate cuts powered the S&P 500 Real Estate index’s rally. Real estate was the best-performing sector in Q3, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 12%. Can this sector pursue its lead now that…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay…
