Overweight The S&P movies & entertainment index has been on a tear recently likely due to receding fiscal uncertainty and the normalization process in the economy (third panel). This niche communication services sub-…
Underweight Countercyclical consumer staples stocks served their purpose and supported our portfolio in the front half of 2020. Now that vaccines are here, we added the S&P consumer staples sector to the high-conviction…
There is little good news left that the market can discount to push the SPX higher through the multiple expansion pathway. This implies that earnings will have to do the heavy lifting and pull the SPX higher. The near all-time high 23x…
Highlights Long-term investors should remain in the stock market – because central banks’ explicit commitment to financial stability will force them to crush bond yields in response to any major pullback in the $500 trillion…
Last autumn during the 10% SPX correction, we started to reposition the portfolio to benefit from the reopening trade and initiated our long “Back-To-Work”/short “COVID-19 Winners” trade, implemented a…
Total US nonfarm payrolls were a major disappointment, falling by 140 thousand in December, after rising in the previous 7 months. But the contents of the report are not nearly as negative for markets as the headline number…
After bottoming in Q4, the German DAX is rallying and outperforming the Euro Stoxx 50 in the process. While the near-term is muddled by the pandemic’s resurgence, the global manufacturing recovery this year will ultimately…
Highlights The (earnings) yield premium on tech stocks versus the 10-year bond yield is at its 2.5 percent lower threshold that has signalled four previous market fragilities. Additionally, the 65-day fractal structure of stocks…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation Strategy service, a rapid rollout of vaccines means that the economy should be on track to return to near-normality by the second half of 2021. Therefore, the key thing…