Dear Client, Next week I will be presenting our 2021 outlook on China at our last webcasts of the year "China 2021 Key Views: Shifting Gears In The New Decade". The webcasts will take place next Wednesday, December 16 at…
2020 will soon be history and on the eve of the New Year, it is instructive to update our presidential cycle and SPX returns research. Encouragingly, still elevated policy uncertainty will likely continue to recede next year and act as a…
Dear client, Next Monday December 14, 2020 we will be hosting our last webcasts for the year “From Alpha To Omega With Anastasios”, one at 10am EST for our US, European and Middle Eastern clients and one at 8pm EST for our…
Our long-held view has been that profit margins really only mean revert during recessions. This cycle has proved no different and empirical evidence shows that SPX margins fell over 200bps from peak-to-trough (top panel). Now…
Highlights Every year we review our best and worst calls – both in terms of geopolitics and markets. This year our geopolitical forecasting and strategic market recommendations performed well, given the COVID-19 shock, but our…
Underweight Last Monday we executed our S&P homebuilders downgrade alert and reduced allocation in this consumer discretionary sub-group to below benchmark. While the media has been cheering homebuilder-related data…
Dr. Copper has gone ballistic of late, breaking out to multi-year highs. While there is an element of speculative fervor, global growth is ascending and China’s demand for commodities remains insatiable (top panel).…
The strength in China’s post-pandemic policy support likely peaked in October. Interbank rates have normalized to their pre-pandemic levels and bond yields have risen sharply since May. The renewed emphasis on financial de-risking is…
The SPX has breathed a sigh of relief and has slingshot higher in November to the tune of 10%, reversing two months of losses and springing back to all-time highs. Equity flows have been spiking and investor bullishness is near three…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…