Neutral – Downgrade Alert It no longer pays to chase the S&P homebuilding index higher; it is now on our downgrade alert watch-list. The recent pandemic-induced drubbing in interest rates boosted housing…
Neutral – Downgrade Alert Banks hit all-time lows again this week on the back of mixed profit results. While Q3 loan loss reserves will rise albeit at a slower pace than H1/2020, net interest income ails and difficulty…
Following up from yesterday’s US Equity Strategy’s sector insight, today we take a closer look at VIX and e-mini futures positioning, again from a contrarian perspective. Using CFTC weekly data, VIX non-…
Highlights Our model suggests that more rate hikes are ahead in 2021; we project a less than 50bps increase in the PBoC policy rate from the current level. Chinese stock prices positively correlate with interest rates and bond yields…
Bulls regained control of the equity market, and frenzied buying on Monday pushed the SPX and NDX indexes within striking distance of fresh all-time highs. Our sense is that the market has finally come round to BCA’s…
Dear client, Next Monday, October 19, we will be hosting our quarterly webcast, “From Alpha To Omega With Anastasios”, at 10am EST; Matt Gertken, BCA’s Geopolitical Strategist will be our guest on the eve of the US…
Most recent Standard and Poor’s data show that SPX buybacks collapsed to $88bn in Q2, from roughly $200bn in Q1, which is a whopping 67% quarter-over-quarter fall. Such a corporate buyer’s strike is negative for…
Underweight We remain bearish on the prospects of the S&P real estate sector as the pandemic will continue to severely bruise REITs. Already, YTD relative share prices are down 10%, and were it not for the tech/…
Neutral - Downgrade Alert Absent another fiscal package, banks risk digesting a new wave of credit defaults, further increasing their loan loss provisions as pandemic wounds remain open. Importantly, according to the…
Dear Client, Next week I will present our outlook on China’s economic recovery, the direction of economic policy and financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond in two live webcasts. The webcasts will take place next…