Neutral In mid-April we moved the S&P consumer discretionary sector to the overweight column via upgrading the internet and home improvement retail sub-sectors. While the home improvement retailers hit our stop earlier…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy We opt to stay patient and refrain from deploying fresh capital especially in the tech sector in the near-term; a better entry point will likely materialize between now and the end of the year. The…

  This summer we have been highlighting unsustainable trends in the US equity market and today we turn our attention to buybacks. As we first pointed out in the late-2019 Weekly Report, share buybacks have been a key pillar…

  Undoubtedly, the SPX is fully valued trading near an all-time 12-month forward P/E multiple and an all-time high trailing P/S ratio. Correcting the forward P/E multiple for the 5-year forward growth rate and creating an S&…

  Overweight We reiterate our recent upgrade to overweight in the S&P materials sector. Since the late-July inception, materials stocks have been steadily climbing and also propelling our cyclicals/defensives portfolio…

This report contains an error in the section related to consumer spending and fiscal policy. That error somewhat changes the conclusions from the report, and it particularly impacts Chart 3, Table 2 and Table 3. The attached note explains…

Highlights Overweighting the SIFI banks is our highest-conviction call, … : Our enthusiasm for the four banks deemed to be systemically important financial institutions is founded on the view that generous monetary and fiscal…

Neutral In mid-April we went overweight the S&P home improvement retail (HIR) index on the back of demand-stimulating zero interest rate monetary policy, loose fiscal policy as well as rising lumber prices. As a reminder, HIR…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy We are introducing a structurally constructive US equity market view with an SPX 7000 target for year 2028 on the back of peak cycle EPS of $310 and peak cycle P/E multiple of 23. The reopening of the…

Highlights Chart 1Permanent Job Losses Still Rising  The biggest event in bond markets last month was the Fed’s shift toward a regime of average inflation targeting. Treasuries sold off in the days following the…