Software stocks have been on a tear. This defensive-tech index has bested the SPX by 34% year-to-date, and in absolute terms is up a whopping 45%. While such a breakneck pace is clearly unsustainable, and a short-term breather…
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service in a recent report assessed the risks to the US banking system from a potential downturn in commercial real estate. In a scenario of high CRE loan losses alone…
Highlights A weak dollar and low bond yields have pushed up the S&P 500 more than anticipated. Cyclical forces favor loftier stock prices in 12 months. Froth creates short-term vulnerabilities that higher yields could catalyze.…
Underweight Our recent downgrade in the S&P hypermarkets index to underweight also pushed the overall S&P consumer staples sector to a below benchmark allocation. According to our mid-April research on what sectors…
Highlights ‘Value’ sector profits are in terminal decline. Bank profits are in terminal decline, because private sector credit is now ‘maxed out’, and the intermediation between borrowers and savers can be done…
Underweight We have been adding cyclical exposure to the portfolio and lightening up on defensives and as a continuation of this shift we recently downgraded the S&P hypermarkets group to underweight. The economy is…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Softening operating metrics, the falling US dollar, the reopening of the economy, all suggest that investors should avoid hypermarket stocks. A firming macro backdrop, the USD’s recent drop, along…