The deeper we dig in the concentration of SPX returns the more worried we become. The top five stocks in the SPX (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL & FB) have added $4.82tn to the S&P 500 market cap since 2015, whereas the…
Highlights For financials and energy to produce a sustained rally, there must be no relapse in global growth during the autumn and winter of 2020/21. However, with the coronavirus still in play and the usual flu and virus season yet…
Earnings season is in full swing, and rock bottom expectations for most sectors will prove once again a low bar to surpass. Earnings ultimately matter for stock returns. As a reminder the SPX drubbing in March predicted a collapse in…
Two Friday’s ago we highlighted that the tech sector’s (plus FANG: FB, AMZN, NFLX & GOOGL) market cap weight in the SPX was high and rising to uncharted territory near 40%, and such narrowing breadth was a…
BCA Research's US Investment Strategy service remains bullish on the SIFI banks despite the uncertainty surrounding their outlook. Second quarter earnings provided just that demonstration, at least away from WFC, which has…
Highlights The ultimate extent of credit losses in this cycle is unknown, … : Conventional models are ill-equipped to project the damage that the pandemic will inflict on the economy when monetary and fiscal policymakers are…
The drubbing in the US/EMU sovereign bond spread is cause for concern for the SPX’s slingshot recovery off the March 23 lows, especially given the tight positive correlation of these two series over the past three…
Table 1 Online political betting markets are still not fully pricing our sister BCA Geopolitical Strategy’s 55% odds for the "Blue Wave" scenario. Therefore, it pays to examine what will be the likely impact of…
Following our recent downgrade in the S&P banks index, we were also compelled to downgrade the S&P investment banks & brokerage (IBB) index to a benchmark allocation as it has a similar investment profile. The…