The SPX collapsed on Monday in a mini-crash, reminiscent of the 20% October 1987 Black Monday crash. True, in 1987 the stock market fell 20% in a single day, but it is equally painful when the S&P 500 drops roughly 20% in…
Dear Client, In addition to this week’s report, BCA Research will hold webcasts over the coming days to discuss the economic and financial outlook amid the myriad of uncertainties gripping global markets. I will take part in a…
There is a lot of uncertainty that reverberates through the equity markets and the dust has yet to settle down from Monday’s big crack. Small caps (similar to weak balance sheet stocks, middle panel) have cratered for…
We have been cyclically bearish the broad equity market and vindicated, especially given yesterday's circuit breaker drawdown in the SPX, heeding the messages of our EPS profit model, that had no pulse, and of the bond…
Highlights Financial markets have experienced two weeks of wild swings: Following the negative 5-standard-deviation weekly move in the S&P 500 two weeks ago, the index moved at least 2.8% in each of last week’s first four…
Underweight Our intra-sector positioning shifts with the recent S&P tech hardware storage & peripherals downgrade to underweight1 and this Monday’s trimming of the S&P software index to neutral, reduce the S…
Year to date, financials have been the second worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, after energy. Within that group, banks fell nearly 20%, thanks to the collapse in yields caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. If our…
Yesterday, BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service concluded that land and home sales are likely to pick up in 2020 thanks to government expenditure. Investors should not expect large fluctuations in housing…
Highlights At the current rate of work resumption, March’s PMI should rebound to its “normal range” from February’s historic lows. If so, our simple calculation, using China’s PMI figures and GDP growth in…
Neutral Market events last week compelled us to take profits of 51% in the S&P software index above and beyond the S&P 500’s return since the late-2017 inception and downgrade exposure to neutral. Last Monday…