According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most carry investors have covered their positions. Away from day-to-day noise, the longer-term trajectory of yen exchange rates…
Stress among lower-income households is often cited as an early indication of deteriorating aggregate consumer fundamentals. The data indeed suggests that this cohort’s cash holdings are depleting. However, the Fed…
Despite the recent correction, US equity leadership remains intact. The MSCI US index has outperformed global markets by 3.8% in 2024YTD. A 7.8% expansion in forward earnings drove the MSCI US index’ 2024YTD gains which was…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran…
US retail sales grew 0.1% m/m in August and beat expectations of a 0.2% monthly contraction. The positive surprise seemingly spurred equity market gains on Tuesday morning. However, details do not paint as rosy a…
The ZEW survey of both German business expectations and current situation largely disappointed in September, decreasing by 15.6 points to 3.6 and by 7.2 points to -84.5, respectively. The ZEW survey of expectations for…
Industrial metals returned a whopping 6% over the past week. Bullish investor sentiment is likely driving these gains. The soft-landing narrative has been gaining traction in recent days with markets pricing in increased odds…
Stocks are a forward discounting mechanism and routinely top before recessions begin, even if they typically do not swoon until the recession has taken hold. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, if…
The timeliest of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys sent a positive signal about the state of US manufacturing activity in September. The Empire State manufacturing general business conditions index surprised positively.…