The S&P 500 has given back almost all of the year-to-date gains. While the coronavirus has served as an excuse to sell as we warned last week, we are nowhere near in unwinding the extreme overbought conditions in the broad…

Highlights Chart 1The 2003 SARS Roadmap  The bond market impact from the coronavirus has already been substantial. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 1.51%, below the fed funds rate. Meanwhile, the investment grade…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy China’s monetary easing, the resilient US dollar, weak operating industry metrics and a looming margin squeeze all signal that an underweight stance is still warranted in the S&P chemicals index.…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31, 2020.  The model made a significant change in its allocation this month. The allocation to the US is now…

Overweight The latest MSFT report was very robust and surprised to the upside on nearly every metric, and helped push the S&P software index to uncharted territory. Nevertheless, we do not want to overstay our welcome and a number…

  Overweight Capital markets stocks have come out of hibernation recently and are on the cusp of breaking out – in a bullish fashion – of their 18-month trading range. Total mutual fund assets are expanding at a…

Highlights The liquidity-driven rally will soon be followed by an acceleration in global growth. The economic recovery will bump up expectations of long-term profit growth. The dollar has downside, but the euro will not benefit much…

An analysis on Hong Kong is available below. Highlights The correction in EM risk assets and currencies will be larger than during the SARS outbreak. A number of market indicators that are pertinent for EM assets are sending a…

  Structural Underweight Our sixth big theme for the 2020s is a sustained deceleration of Chinese real GDP growth to a range of 4% to 2%. While this will not happen overnight, the implication is that steadily lower real GDP…