Sectors

The timeliest of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys sent a positive signal about the state of US manufacturing activity in September. The Empire State manufacturing general business conditions index surprised positively. It improved markedly from -4.7…

Trade data from small open economies act as a bellwether for global growth developments. In August, Korean exports expanded by 11.4% y/y in USD and 5.7% y/y in KRW terms, marking their eleventh and eighth consecutive month of expansion, respectively.…

Investors are pricing in a soft landing in the US. Notably, we noted that pro-cyclical assets topped the performance ranking in August. At the same time, the S&P 500 is currently trading only 1% below its all-time highs.   However, investors are…

According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation Strategy service, a common objection to buying Bitcoin raised by traditional investors is that it is too volatile. In the past it has been argued that this is irrelevant, however, this also turns out to be…

We noted earlier this month that the Fed would be unlikely to deliver a jumbo rate cut without telegraphing it first. President Williams' and Governor Waller’s September 6 speeches offered policymakers one last chance to do so before the customary pre-FOMC…

Preliminary estimates suggest that consumer sentiment improved in September. The headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased from 67.9 to a higher-than-projected 68.5. Both the current conditions and expectations components improved…

Volkswagen’s CEO has been making the point that the market for European carmakers has been deteriorating. Earlier last week, he went on to make a rather pointed reference at Chinese EV manufacturers. He was quoted saying that, "The pie has become…

According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the imbalances in the US economy are sizeable enough to generate a mild recession. Unfortunately for equity investors, a mild recession would not preclude a deep correction in stocks.   …

Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the outlook for bond yields currently hinges…

As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that industrial applications…