Sectors
Both the Chinese and US central banks will likely take policy actions in the coming weeks. What is the potential impact of a mortgage rate cut on China’s household consumption and the broader economy? Will the anticipated Fed easing cycle further lift the RMB exchange rate versus the US dollar?
Consumer credit rose by USD 25.5bn in July (to USD 5,093.7 bn outstanding), more than twice the expected growth. However, revisions suggest that June’s consumer credit growth was slower than initially reported (USD 8.9bn to 5.2bn). Nonrevolving credit…
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
Private Equity & Sports
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The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and households’ debt burden stands at 155% of…
Global semiconductor stocks have returned 50% YTD in USD terms, and a whopping 200% since their September 2022 lows. However, they may have peaked back in July. Our Emerging Market strategists highlight a significant bifurcation between the revenues of…
BCA Research’s European Investment strategists looked at previous episodes of carry-trade blowups and assessed the performance of the Eurozone’s key sectors, national markets, and currencies three and six months thereafter. Under both investment horizons,…
Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?
August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis. Notably, pro-cyclical…
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the evolution of economic conditions. …