We continue to expect a recession by early 2025 but assign non-trivial odds to growth surprising to the upside until then. Our Global Investment Strategy team thus recommends investors adopt a barbell equity strategy as a…
1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment…
We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.
The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?
The US economy remains on a path towards a recession, most likely starting in late 2024 or early 2025. For now, investors should maintain a benchmark allocation to equities, but employ a barbell strategy of overweighting defensives…
Healthcare has underperformed the S&P 500 by 23% since early 2023. Profit margins have been squeezed since the pandemic revenue windfall dried up and because long-term contracts prevented companies from raising prices in line…
Utilities have had a stellar run since February with the MSCI ACW Utilities index outperforming the MSCI ACW by nearly nine percentage points. Despite being a defensive sector, Utilities’ performance this year has been…
The long-term winners from the generative-AI gold rush are unlikely to be the ‘picks and shovels’ stock Nvidia or the overvalued US superstars of Web 2.0. We discuss the structural investment implications. Plus: time to go tactically…
