Sectors

European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?

Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant markets. The Fed is unlikely to step in to prevent the bubble as it is currently more worried about the near-term downside for growth than financial stability.

MacroQuant sees significant downside risks to stocks over a 1-to-3 month horizon and suggests increasing allocation to long-term bonds. The model favours defensive equity sectors but is also hedging its bets by overweighting materials.

In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and developed market rates cuts will likely be too modest and come too late to save the day. Nimble investors or those highly sensitive to tracking error should not be underweight stocks over the coming 3-6 months. Over a 6-12 month time horizon, we continue to recommend that investors remain underweight global equities versus US$-hedged long-maturity developed market government bonds. Section II is a guest report written by Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist. Martin revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years.

We recommend overweight in Pharma over a tactical and strategic investment horizon, as challenges, that have recently hampered the industry group’s performance, are dissipating. Likely election outcomes are positive for the industry, while major trends like generative AI applied to drug development and an aging population are long-term tailwinds.

China is trying to export its way out of its economic slowdown while the US has already formed a hawkish consensus on foreign policy and trade. Investors should take cover as global financial markets are underrating the new phase of the trade war, which will escalate from here.

The RMB 500 billion program is small, as it is equivalent to only 4% of property developers' total funding from the past 12 months. This will preclude a recovery in property construction this year. Corporate profits will determine the path of China’s share prices on a cyclical time horizon. Deflation in China will persist for now, which will depress corporate profits even if volumes grow modestly.