The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch…
Clients are increasingly more positive about the US economy, but there are no signs of exuberance. The rally could continue as the majority is not fully invested. Financial conditions have already eased, and the Fed is unlikely to…
According to Factset, analysts are forecasting S&P 500 earnings and revenues to grow by 11.0% y/y and 5.0% y/y respectively in 2024 (an acceleration from 0.9% and 2.8% in 2023). Information technology and communications…
The S&P 500 Homebuilders index has returned a whopping 50% since October and outperformed the overall market by 24% over this period. Tight US housing supply is placing a floor under construction activity and constitutes a…
Our US Equity Strategy service released their Sector Chart Pack where they took stock of the recent earnings season and developments in the S&P 500. They observed that this February marked the strongest performance in the…
Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered…
The market narrative continues to be dominated by the Magnificent Six, which drove both market performance and strong Q4 earnings results. While all sectors and styles have recently turned green, the rally is still mostly narrow.…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the underperformance of European assets relative to the US is due its lagging productivity, even after adjusting for sectoral compositions in their stock…
As we highlighted in a previous Insight, the breadth of the US equity rally has been relatively narrow, led by extremely strong gains among Big Tech stocks. Tech is still the best performing sector, with the S&P IT price…
Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.