Investors should be tactically tilting allocations towards Direct Lending, Distressed Debt, and Directional Hedge Fund strategies at the expense of Real Estate, Private Equity, and Diversifier Hedge Funds. Structural opportunities…
With US equity indices forging new highs, a key dynamic to watch to gauge the sustainability of the rally is earnings releases and forward guidance. With 52 S&P 500 companies having already reported their results, the Q4…
The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) kicked off the fourth-quarter US reporting season on January 12th. As usual, our US Investment Strategists studied the SIFI’s earnings calls looking for macroeconomic insights from…
The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us…
Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are…
Decelerating nominal sales, a peaking credit cycle, and very high valuations - Indian stocks will not escape the carnage when risk assets globally begin to sell off.
The performance of the Industrials sector tends to lag the business cycle, as companies invest in capex on the heels of economic expansion. But demand is not entirely cyclical, as the need to replace obsolete or aging equipment…
The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration…
In this note, we preview the Q4-2023 earnings season and share what we will be watching.